We are living in exciting times. The Signposts point to Jesus soon return.

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Dying In a Nuclear Apocalypse Is Still a Pretty Likely Outcome

Prophecy Sign:  Rumors of War

Then another horse came out, a fiery red one. Its rider was given power to take peace from the earth and to make people kill each other. To him was given a large sword. Revelation 6:4 NIV

Dying In a Nuclear Apocalypse Is Still a Pretty Likely Outcome
In a more recent analysis, Seth Baum, executive director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, looked specifically at the chances of an inadvertent (accidental) nuclear war between Russia and the United States occurring. Depending on the assumptions made, the odds were as high as 1-in-100. Overall, figure that the odds of a nuclear war, inadvertent or otherwise, between any number nuclear armed states should be much, much higher if the scope is expanded beyond the US and Russia.
Launch buttons are all over the world now, including both sides of the still-festering India/Pakistan conflict. And then there’s North Korea, China, Israel, France, and the UK. All armed for doomsday. Then there are the non-state actors, the terrorists etc. The often-accepted odds of a terrorist-initiated nuclear attack within the next 10 years are 50-50.

War Clouds
We are entering a similarly dangerous interlude. Collapsing oil prices -- a good thing for most of the world -- will make troublemakers like oil-exporting Iran and Russia take even more risks. Terrorist groups such as the Islamic State feel that conventional military power has no effect on their agendas. The West is seen as a tired culture of Black Friday shoppers and maxed-out credit card holders. NATO is underfunded and without strong American leadership. It can only hope that Vladimir Putin does not invade a NATO country like Estonia, rather than prepare for the likelihood that he will, and soon. The United States has slashed its defense budget to historic lows. It sends the message abroad that friendship with America brings few rewards while hostility toward the U.S. has even fewer consequences.

'Pakistan could have 200 nuclear weapons by 2020'
In report released by the US-based Council on Foreign Relations titled Strategic Stability in the Second Nuclear Age, author Gregory D. Koblentz, an expert on arms control and non-proliferation, identifies South Asia as the region "most at risk of a breakdown in strategic stability due to an explosive mixture of unresolved territorial disputes, cross-border terrorism, and growing nuclear arsenals."
In this context, Pakistan has the fastest-growing nuclear program in the world. And as Koblentz says in a DW interview, by 2020, the Islamic Republic could have a stockpile of fissile material that, if weaponized, could produce as many as two hundred nuclear devices, roughly equivalent to the size of the United Kingdom's nuclear arsenal.

Iran Unveils Advanced Military Hardware After Nuke Talks Fail

Putin says foes hope to dismember Russia; ruble falls
President Vladimir Putin accused Russia's enemies on Thursday of seeking to carve it up and destroy its economy to punish it for becoming strong, but said his country would rise to any challenge. In a fiercely patriotic state of the union speech, the Kremlin leader trumpeted his annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, praised the Russian people for their strength, accused the West of "pure cynicism" in Ukraine and said economic sanctions must drive Russians to develop their own economy. "We are ready to meet any challenge of the times and win," he declared to applause from an audience of 1,000 dignitaries, almost all of them loyal supporters.

NATO Steps up to Russia, but Back From Afghanistan

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